Originally passed by ballot measure in 1980 and then added to the State Constitution by ballot measure in 2000, the Oregon Tax Rebate – commonly called the “kicker” – mandates that a tax rebate be issued to Oregon residents when the calculated revenue for a given two-year cycle exceeds the forecasted revenue by at least two percent. As of right now, all signs are pointing towards the possibility of that happening in 2021.
According to the Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, released February 24, 2021, there are indications that Oregon’s actual revenue for 2019‒21 is expected to be better than projected. This optimistic forecast raises the possibility that the “kicker” will be triggered. That said, before Oregonians start thinking about how they might use their rebate, there are still some steps between this current forecast and the reality of money being returned to Oregon taxpayers.
Between now and September, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) will publish quarterly revenue forecasts – each signaling the potential for a “kicker” and how much it might be. If the OEA certifies the reality of a kicker – Oregonians will know on or before October 1, 2021. Taxpayers will be able to claim the credit on their 2021 tax year return filed in 2022. We’ll keep you posted on the OEA’s forecasts and the potential of a kicker throughout the year.